I’ve made a misguided thread linking whether or not an event was successful just through numbers alone and assuming that such would lead to the decline of FEE3, missing the point that FEE3 itself is not about these numbers or its “success” through an unnecessarily calculative viewpoint.
FEE3 is a celebration first, of Fire Emblem and everyone who enjoys and participates on the FE hacking scene, and I’ve neglected to understand that.
That’s why I’m retracting this misleading thread, and while I could delete it, that’s just a coward’s way out to evade what may come my way.
The Thread
Tomorrow, February 7th, will mark four months from the start of the 2023’s FEE3 event. After waiting to see whether the views would improve overtime or not, I have considered this enough time to make a judgement out from the performance of the event.
There were already other factors that had already set themselves in my thoughts over the “success” of the event, such as the low record of submissions and the varied initial performance and reception of many of them.
Henceforth, here are the reasons why I consider that the FEE3 of 2023 was not the success people claimed it out to be.
Decrease in Submissions
One of the factors to consider is the wide decrease in submissions - a concept that coupled with the still steady release of hacks outside from FEU itself (whether due to rejection of it or lack of knowledge of such event) shows that the event has taken a blow on popularity from creators themselves.
This year we score 58 submissions (lower than 2020’s, which is when FEU became the designated channel to showcase them), and this is largely caused by certain circumstances:
On previous events, before the change on the assignation of Commentaries was pushed, Commentaries and Let’s Players were assigned through the FEU staff, akin to a middleman, removing pressure from the romhacker towards getting a video for FEE3. Now, this duty falls entirely on the romhacker, which has caused some to default towards trailers and others to simply not submit their project.
This, tied with the slow loss of relevancy of FEU (and whether or not people are aware of it) and the FEE3 as a reliable place to submit projects (and some of the bars placed to prevent romhackers from releasing their concepts) has decreased the amount of hacks in the event, whilst some of those hacks see a release or trailer outside of the event (such as Bound Destiny and other potential projects that are out there.) released in a Youtube video with less than a thousand views and potentially hidden away from the FEU community.
How this affects views
So, with the loss of faith in FEE3 as an event and the difficulties for non-experienced romhackers to pull through what must be done to have a submission (either create a trailer or go through the work of getting a commentator), this spirals into
- Loss of Novelty
This year, 23 out of the 57* project submissions had appeared on previous years, 22 of these returning hacks having appeared on 2022 (Transcending Darkness having not been present on FEE3). That is a 40% of the submissions this year.
- Unfavored New Projects
Comparing the newcomers and the returning submissions, we see the following:
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Only 6 out of 23 returning hacks score less than 2k views. (25%~)
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15 out of 34 newcomer hacks score less than 2k views. (44%~)
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7 out of 23 returning hacks have more than 4k views. (30%~)
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Only 4 out of the 34 newcomer projects hit the 4k window as well. (10%~)
We can infer from this that the inherent status of having been around already often gathers more interest from the general FEU viewerbase compared to new projects, which makes it harder for such romhackers to have a good reason to submit their project, as it takes a strong, innovative concept or a long-awaited concept to come through (those being HoloEmblem by Irohia, Project Baldr by BaldrStudios and Three Legacies by UltraXBlade).
- General Performance compared to other FEE3s
Let’s now consider the last four E3s (as those are the ones most readily accessible and differentiable due to being in the FEU channel) and how FEE3 2023 has performed against them (not counting Nuramon for either year.)
Distribution of Top Videos in FEU
| Year of FEE3 | Top 25 | Top 50 | Top 100 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 4/25 (16%) | 6/50 (12%) | 12/100 (12%) |
| 2021 | 4/25 (16%) | 9/50 (18%) | 22/100 (22%) |
| 2022 | 13/25 (52%) | 24/50 (48%) | 44/100 (44%) |
| 2023 | 4/25 (16%) | 11/50 (22%) | 22/100 (22%) |
By placement alone, we can see that FEE3 2023 is somewhat on par with FEE3 2021, and way less strong that FEE3 2022 - which granted, it simply was a stronger event.
So, we will also take note of the views of the most viewed videos of each year (barring Nuramon) and compare the view value, as the previous table gives the same value to the Top 1 and Top 25 video.
Top Views Distribution in FEU
| Year of FEE3 | Top 5 | Top 15 | Top 25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 36.011 (20.5%) | 67.202 (19%) | 86.961 (18.4%) |
| 2021 | 38.195 (21.8%) | 74.760 (21.2%) | 102.622 (21.7%) |
| 2022 | 60.488 (34.5%) | 131.238 (37.1%) | 173.873 (36.8%) |
| 2023 | 40.739 (23.2%) | 80.160 (22.7%) | 108.602 (23%) |
We see here again the same pattern, the views of this year having regressed towards the same level of 2021’s E3. We have gone from growth with each coming E3 so far to hitting a spike on 2022, and now becoming stale.
The Precedents set by FEE3 2022
FEE3 2022 is easily what can be considered the Golden Era of FEU, having as large of a pool of submissions as FEE3 2021 and boasting the largest viewcount, aided by both the late stage pandemic and strong trailers and projects such as Sacred Echoes, Cerulean Coast and Pokémblem, as well as highly appraised interaction with the Tellius’ Romhacking stage.
Yet now, the submissions that rode the top have failed to keep up with the old numbers, with Eternal Winter dropping 5k views from one year to the other, Pokemblem and Cerulean Coast losing over 6k views, and other projects such as FE5AD taking minor losses with 1k views or less.
FEE3 2022 is an event that one will hardly be able to match for a long time.
Common Statements in favor of the success of FEE3
It is true that videos never stop accumulating views once an event ends, but after a window of time, the amount of views it gains grows stale and hardly increases any longer. At this point it is safe to assume that no more additional views will be gained in a significant manner, whether be it on the videos of this year or on the videos of the previous ones.
It is also relevant to note that the amount of input required on these late FEE3s has been dramatically decreased as many of the procedures have been shifted from the staff/management team to the individual romhacker itself.
On the amount of Long Form (+10 minutes) videos, this has turned into 24 out of the 57 projects, or 42% of the submissions this year.
For 2022’s E3, there were 50 Long Form videos out of the 75 submissions (or 67%), and for 2021’s E3, 64 out of 80 (or 80%). The proportional amount of LPs has gone in high decrease, and combined with the lower amount of submissions, it is easy to connect that to quicker uploading times, as well as a lesser need to manage and split Let’s Plays between volunteers.
Trailers are made because people can afford to make trailers, but as by the numbers showcased above, the general trend has always been Let’s Playing, as such can convey a better (even if I don’t consider it enough) idea of what the game contains and its unique features that divide them from the other games. The sharp decrease in Let’s Plays is derived from romhackers (especially the new ones with no contacts whatsoever) no longer being able to depend on the FEU staff to assign them a Let’s Player. For some, this pushed them to do a trailer instead, and for others, it pushed them to simply not submit anything.
As of now, FEE3 2023 is showcasing that we’re no longer going upwards - there is no more growth, and we’ve hit a possible ceiling. It would be reasonable to ponder whether or not a new alternative can be found to prevent the eventual bleeding - if not direct halting (as such comments get passed around, treating FEE3’s management as a hot potato) - that FEE3 will be suffering soon.
