[Retracted] FEE3 2023 is not the success we made out to be

I’ve made a misguided thread linking whether or not an event was successful just through numbers alone and assuming that such would lead to the decline of FEE3, missing the point that FEE3 itself is not about these numbers or its “success” through an unnecessarily calculative viewpoint.

FEE3 is a celebration first, of Fire Emblem and everyone who enjoys and participates on the FE hacking scene, and I’ve neglected to understand that.

That’s why I’m retracting this misleading thread, and while I could delete it, that’s just a coward’s way out to evade what may come my way.

The Thread

Tomorrow, February 7th, will mark four months from the start of the 2023’s FEE3 event. After waiting to see whether the views would improve overtime or not, I have considered this enough time to make a judgement out from the performance of the event.

There were already other factors that had already set themselves in my thoughts over the “success” of the event, such as the low record of submissions and the varied initial performance and reception of many of them.

Henceforth, here are the reasons why I consider that the FEE3 of 2023 was not the success people claimed it out to be.

Decrease in Submissions

One of the factors to consider is the wide decrease in submissions - a concept that coupled with the still steady release of hacks outside from FEU itself (whether due to rejection of it or lack of knowledge of such event) shows that the event has taken a blow on popularity from creators themselves.

This year we score 58 submissions (lower than 2020’s, which is when FEU became the designated channel to showcase them), and this is largely caused by certain circumstances:

On previous events, before the change on the assignation of Commentaries was pushed, Commentaries and Let’s Players were assigned through the FEU staff, akin to a middleman, removing pressure from the romhacker towards getting a video for FEE3. Now, this duty falls entirely on the romhacker, which has caused some to default towards trailers and others to simply not submit their project.

This, tied with the slow loss of relevancy of FEU (and whether or not people are aware of it) and the FEE3 as a reliable place to submit projects (and some of the bars placed to prevent romhackers from releasing their concepts) has decreased the amount of hacks in the event, whilst some of those hacks see a release or trailer outside of the event (such as Bound Destiny and other potential projects that are out there.) released in a Youtube video with less than a thousand views and potentially hidden away from the FEU community.

How this affects views

So, with the loss of faith in FEE3 as an event and the difficulties for non-experienced romhackers to pull through what must be done to have a submission (either create a trailer or go through the work of getting a commentator), this spirals into

  • Loss of Novelty

This year, 23 out of the 57* project submissions had appeared on previous years, 22 of these returning hacks having appeared on 2022 (Transcending Darkness having not been present on FEE3). That is a 40% of the submissions this year.

  • Unfavored New Projects

Comparing the newcomers and the returning submissions, we see the following:

  • Only 6 out of 23 returning hacks score less than 2k views. (25%~)

  • 15 out of 34 newcomer hacks score less than 2k views. (44%~)

  • 7 out of 23 returning hacks have more than 4k views. (30%~)

  • Only 4 out of the 34 newcomer projects hit the 4k window as well. (10%~)

We can infer from this that the inherent status of having been around already often gathers more interest from the general FEU viewerbase compared to new projects, which makes it harder for such romhackers to have a good reason to submit their project, as it takes a strong, innovative concept or a long-awaited concept to come through (those being HoloEmblem by Irohia, Project Baldr by BaldrStudios and Three Legacies by UltraXBlade).

  • General Performance compared to other FEE3s

Let’s now consider the last four E3s (as those are the ones most readily accessible and differentiable due to being in the FEU channel) and how FEE3 2023 has performed against them (not counting Nuramon for either year.)

Distribution of Top Videos in FEU
Year of FEE3 Top 25 Top 50 Top 100
2020 4/25 (16%) 6/50 (12%) 12/100 (12%)
2021 4/25 (16%) 9/50 (18%) 22/100 (22%)
2022 13/25 (52%) 24/50 (48%) 44/100 (44%)
2023 4/25 (16%) 11/50 (22%) 22/100 (22%)

By placement alone, we can see that FEE3 2023 is somewhat on par with FEE3 2021, and way less strong that FEE3 2022 - which granted, it simply was a stronger event.

So, we will also take note of the views of the most viewed videos of each year (barring Nuramon) and compare the view value, as the previous table gives the same value to the Top 1 and Top 25 video.

Top Views Distribution in FEU
Year of FEE3 Top 5 Top 15 Top 25
2020 36.011 (20.5%) 67.202 (19%) 86.961 (18.4%)
2021 38.195 (21.8%) 74.760 (21.2%) 102.622 (21.7%)
2022 60.488 (34.5%) 131.238 (37.1%) 173.873 (36.8%)
2023 40.739 (23.2%) 80.160 (22.7%) 108.602 (23%)

We see here again the same pattern, the views of this year having regressed towards the same level of 2021’s E3. We have gone from growth with each coming E3 so far to hitting a spike on 2022, and now becoming stale.

The Precedents set by FEE3 2022

FEE3 2022 is easily what can be considered the Golden Era of FEU, having as large of a pool of submissions as FEE3 2021 and boasting the largest viewcount, aided by both the late stage pandemic and strong trailers and projects such as Sacred Echoes, Cerulean Coast and Pokémblem, as well as highly appraised interaction with the Tellius’ Romhacking stage.

Yet now, the submissions that rode the top have failed to keep up with the old numbers, with Eternal Winter dropping 5k views from one year to the other, Pokemblem and Cerulean Coast losing over 6k views, and other projects such as FE5AD taking minor losses with 1k views or less.

FEE3 2022 is an event that one will hardly be able to match for a long time.

Common Statements in favor of the success of FEE3

It is true that videos never stop accumulating views once an event ends, but after a window of time, the amount of views it gains grows stale and hardly increases any longer. At this point it is safe to assume that no more additional views will be gained in a significant manner, whether be it on the videos of this year or on the videos of the previous ones.

It is also relevant to note that the amount of input required on these late FEE3s has been dramatically decreased as many of the procedures have been shifted from the staff/management team to the individual romhacker itself.

On the amount of Long Form (+10 minutes) videos, this has turned into 24 out of the 57 projects, or 42% of the submissions this year.

For 2022’s E3, there were 50 Long Form videos out of the 75 submissions (or 67%), and for 2021’s E3, 64 out of 80 (or 80%). The proportional amount of LPs has gone in high decrease, and combined with the lower amount of submissions, it is easy to connect that to quicker uploading times, as well as a lesser need to manage and split Let’s Plays between volunteers.

Trailers are made because people can afford to make trailers, but as by the numbers showcased above, the general trend has always been Let’s Playing, as such can convey a better (even if I don’t consider it enough) idea of what the game contains and its unique features that divide them from the other games. The sharp decrease in Let’s Plays is derived from romhackers (especially the new ones with no contacts whatsoever) no longer being able to depend on the FEU staff to assign them a Let’s Player. For some, this pushed them to do a trailer instead, and for others, it pushed them to simply not submit anything.

As of now, FEE3 2023 is showcasing that we’re no longer going upwards - there is no more growth, and we’ve hit a possible ceiling. It would be reasonable to ponder whether or not a new alternative can be found to prevent the eventual bleeding - if not direct halting (as such comments get passed around, treating FEE3’s management as a hot potato) - that FEE3 will be suffering soon.

1 Like

Go touch grass

19 Likes

Consider that The Szechuan Sword, the most innovative hack of 1999, was showcased at FEE3 2023, but not FEE3 2022. 2022 simply didn’t have that kind of pedigree.

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IMG_2531

Me when there’s less hackers submitting their work following a global pandemic’s restrictions loosening that forced everyone to be inside for 2020-2022

17 Likes

oo wee oo i look just like buddy holly

16 Likes

Uuuh… Ok man.

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I dont think a decrease in new submissons from 22 to 23 constitutes the event lowering in status altogether. Projects dont just sprout yearly, they take time to create. (I guess it also helps that world events contributed to the boost in 20-22)

5 Likes

wow just like the real E3, good work team! very accurate simulation

4 Likes

The drought killed it all, sand is the best I can do.

Sand

The Global Pandemic, although a considerable factor to explain the growth of FEE3, didn’t sharply increase the amount of submissions on 2020, which was the year where pandemic restrictions were the tightest, and instead saw a wider increase in '21 and '22, when the restrictions had already started to loosen in varied countries. There are other factors that can arguably justify the higher submission and view rate.

While it is true that just the decrease in submissions and other hacks being released outside of FEU don’t entirely correlate to a direct decrease in status (or to it becoming stagnant instead) without further events or information, that is an argument I am currently researching through the posts of FEU Projects to look at the array of projects that came up within 2023 or were in progress by then that didn’t feature in FEE3, which, considering the amount of hacks that do already sprout up from nowhere while being complete in here, is something to consider both against FEE3 and against the harsh newbie environment.

You wouldn’t use view counts as evidence of a decline when FEE3 2023 videos have only been out for three months and the rest have been up for more than a year, wouldn’t you? You wouldn’t ignore the fact that 2023’s view counts already being on par with 2021’s and better than 2020’s is a sign of growth rather than decline, wouldn’t you?

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We are about to hit four months, and while I am displaying them as a sign of decline - it is closer to consider them as proof of growing stale.

The FEE3 '23 videos won’t see any further heavily changing growths (unless exceptions, such as the 600+ views Sacred Echoes spike), as I have been loosely monitoring the viewcounts and pestering people about them. (Even though it principally was to look at the competition between Hololive and Nuramon’s last release).

Arguing that “the other videos have been up for more than a year” with the stalled viewcount for all of them is a flawed argument. Growth for these videos is logarithmic and even if ten years went by, the viewcounts won’t change any further.

And, '23’s top video count being on par with '21s displays that FEE3 has hit the top of the curve, not that it will continue growing.

So, TL;DR

Wait a minute, I know exactly what was missing from this year’s FEE3.

Clearly this catastrophic failure never would have happened if the rising star of FEU itself, the cult classic, Jury Grand Prix Silver Bear Award-winning ROMhack known as FIRE EMBLEM: INFINITE KINGS had been a part of FEE3 2023.

Did you know that if you play the first ten chapters of Infinite Kings, you’ll receive a FREE promo code, just for you, that you can submit onto the RAID: SHADOW LEGENDS website to get ahead of the competition and multiply your earlygame progression eightfold? There’s only ten chapters of unforgettable content keeping you from obtaining a FREE Epic Level champion as part of the new players’ program. Apsussy, the Weapon of the Eternal Winter is just a few key-strokes away!

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If you think they’ve stagnated, you haven’t monitored the views very well.

This thread reads as an excuse to say you prefer streams to trailers and to claim the numbers back it up. Unless you have FEE3 2022’s viewcounts from three months out, the analysis is useless, and the vibe of ‘well they’re just stagnant forever’ doesn’t even pass the eye test, as someone who’s been paying attention to my own viewcounts because it seemed tantalisingly possible for it to reach 4.20k views at the same time as Lumi’s animation showcase reached 6.9k views. At the same time, another video which I recall was the lowest-watched video and didn’t crack a thousand by FEE3’s end has picked up almost half again that viewcount by now.

If you want more submissions, make a hack.

11 Likes

You’re gonna have to reword that a bit, as I don’t fully get what you mean with “streams” in this context, as a full-on stream would more than likely hurt the general FEU views more.

I don’t have a preference for either LPs or trailers and implying that the thread’s sole purpose is to push my agenda towards what people should do in regards to their own hacks is a poor attempt to disregard my argument.

And even then, my negative statement on LPs is that most of the time they hardly serve as a proof of concept for the game and show their intricacies and uniqueness as an isolated part of the game - and as stated by some, they are just commentaries. I’m the one crackhead who wants complete playthroughs in the FEU channel, the “Trailer vs. LP” debate is beyond me.

They are not necessary for this argument to hold weight, and for your “doesn’t pass the eye test”, I do have a question for you, since you mention following your viewcount closely.

How much time passed between each 100-view gap between, let’s say, 4k and 4.2k?

I had been following closely other parts of the FEE3 '23 rooster (mainly Hololive holding 1st until being overtaken and Baldr’s third place before Sacred Echoes overtook it) on a less serious manner, but noticing the lesser and lesser increases is what pushes this thread to come.

“If you want better roads, drive a car” said the truck driver to the pedestrian.

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You’re gonna have to reword that a bit, as I don’t fully get what you mean with “streams” in this context, as a full-on stream would more than likely hurt the general FEU views more.

If you don’t have the imagination to extend ‘stream’ to ‘a guy playing the thing casually in a stream LP format, then uploading it’, then what’s the point?

I don’t have a preference for either LPs or trailers and implying that the thread’s sole purpose is to push my agenda towards what people should do in regards to their own hacks is a poor attempt to disregard my argument.

It’s how it comes across.

They are not necessary for this argument to hold weight

Yes. They are.

How much time passed between each 100-view gap between, let’s say, 4k and 4.2k?

It’s 4.4k now, it was 4.2k literally like a week and a half ago. I think it was 2.4k a couple weeks after FEE3 ended. AVT’s has grown similarly, DoW’s a little slower.

My 2022 video, which performed mediocrely (because it was a mediocre showcase, honestly), limped from like 1.6k in the aftermath to 2.4k today. It seems like the middle band of 2023 seems about on track to do the same.

“If you want better driving laws, drive a car” said the truck driver to the pedestrian.

No, this doesn’t work. Try again.

5 Likes

Not that I wasn’t able to make the connection right on the next line, but go ahead.

My main example back then was split within Project Baldr (5.5k views by early (11th) November 5.7k views by late (27th) November, 6.3k views by Early (9th) January, 6.6k views now), with increases having steadily slowed down (which was 24th on FEU 20-23 ranking and 3rd for this year’s before Sacred Echoes spiked from below 25th - which had clean 6k views).

I can assure you it does.

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The relationship between FEE3 submissions/Making hacks is not comparable to driving laws/drivers.

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I’m curious as to where else hacks are being released - could you elaborate on this?

If you look at other triple A gaming showcases (Like actual E3), some years are simply better than others. Its not like our romhackers are being paid to make games yearly or on a schedule. 2022 FEE3 was good because the hacks people were looking forwards too all happened to have content made around the same time. Hell, E424 could be just like 22. It all comes down to happenstance.

Serenes

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“If you want better roads, help us construct better roads” said the road worker to the pedestrian. The pedestrian replied “no, but I’ll happily keep wasting your time yelling at you about how you’re not doing a good enough job of it when I know nothing about how roads are built.”

4 Likes